|
Stanley Druckenmiller - a Hedge Fund CEO - a former Soros partner and his fund has not a single down (minus) year in the last 30 years - even in 2022 says in an Interview on CNBC on May 2024 - "That he is against Trump despite he is an Republican, and if Trump wins Presidency, with his Tariffs polisies the Inflation from Jan 20 2025 till the end of 2025 will reach 6% from 3% in 2024".
The FED yesterday - March 19 2025 after the desicion to leave the Interest rates Unchanged has changed his Core Inflationary outlook from - 2.5% to 2.8% till the end of the year 2025 and lowered his Growth outlook for the US economy - accelerating at just a 1.7% pace this year 2025 vs 2.1% acceleration projected in Dec. 2024 for 2025.
April 04 25. After the big tariffs against all the world from this night, the S&P500 and NASDAQ fall by 5% per one day. Now the S&P500 now indicates at 15.50 a.m. NYT another -142 points(-2.62%) down. The Fear vs Greed Index is - 6 - Extreme Fear and Extreamly oversold and from April 08-10 25 the S&P500, NASDAQ and the Technology sector could bounce up for a few days- 2-3 to 5-6 days, till April 14-16 25 but this will be a dead cat bounce even the bounce up could be big and sharp and the Bear market is still in tact.
April 09 25. The Fear vs Greed Index today was - 3, before the market open. At the covid low March 2020 it was - 2. The VIX was yesterday 52 - Extreme high, and from here the VIX coul fall. Today will be the short term and medium term bottom - low. The S&P500, NASDAQ and the Technology sector are going to bounce up starting from today for more than a few days for medium term. This coud be also a long term market bottom - low. Like the Covid Low on March 23 2020, when the Fear vs Greed Ind. was - 2, and the VIX was 80.
April 24 25. The S&P500 is going to be in a trading range between 4900-5100 and 5700 for the next 3 weeks or 2 months until it breaks the level 4900 to the downside or the level 5700 to the upside.
July 05 25. The S&P500 broke on June 27 the short term high - 6130 and is in uptrend. The S&P500 is overbought on a dayly and monthly chart, but not still overbougth on a weekly chart. It can correct for a few days or more, but the bull and up trend is still in tact and the longer term trend is up.
Dec 21 25. The S&P500 is up from the low on Nov 21 25 - 6525 and up 2-nd day from the low on Dec 18 25 - 6727 and the Bull trend is going on. The SP500 and the Technology Sector could correct a little and make a double bottom again to the level of 6727 or at maximum to 6500, but after that the Bull trend will continue from the end of 2025 and from the begining of 2026 year.
|
|